Int’l organizations upbeat about economic prospects

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) adjusted Viet Nam’s GDP growth rate from 6.8% to 6.9% in 2019 and 6.8% in 2020 in the Asian Development Outlook 2019 Update in spite of lowering the economic growth forecast of Asia.

Mr. Nguyen Minh Cuong, principal country economist at the ADB said there was a strong basis to believe in the Vietnamese economic development prospects in the short and medium term.

The ADB's forecast is relatively optimistic, based on the growth of domestic consumption, in addition to growth in export turnover and investment in the last 11 months, making trade growth hit a record US$11 billion. Viet Nam’s total trade turnover may reach US$500 billion or more this year.

Besides, the ADB also looked at the dramatic improvement of the business environment in Viet Nam in recent years and found there is a tendency for foreign investors to gradually withdraw from China to seek other markets with less risks, especially in the context of U.S.-China trade war, and Viet Nam is really an attractive destination.

According to Mr. Nguyen Minh Cuong, the improvement of Viet Nam’s competitiveness is also very noticeable.

That is why the ADB is very optimistic about Viet Nam’s economic growth potential with a forecast of 6.9 % and the growth rate will be maintained in 2020. 

In late December, the World Bank (WB) expected that the Vietnamese economy would expand by 6.8% in 2019, with public debt reduced by nearly 8 percentage points of GDP since 2016 and a trade surplus for the fourth year in a row. The international lender noted that such results are remarkable in the context of a slowing global economy.

Viet Nam’s exports are expected to expand by 8% in 2019, nearly four times faster than the world average while the country has remained an attractive destination for foreign investors, with foreign direct investment averaging US$3 billion per month.

Prospects for the short to medium term are goods as the WB forecasts a GDP growth of around 6.5% the next few years. Viet Nam’s economic fundamentals appear robust, and the government has built some fiscal space through its prudent fiscal policy.

Earlier, the latest survey by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) published this November showed that the Japanese business community considers Viet Nam a promising investment destination in the medium and long term. 

Over 36% of surveyed companies have chosen Viet Nam for investment, up 2.5% from last year, making Viet Nam third in JBIC’s ranking.

Viet Nam is among the 10 Japanese leading investment markets with the most impressive growth.

In late November, Singapore-based Lianhe Zaobao published an article that Viet Nam is among the world’s most open economies and Asia’s fastest growing economies.  

The article quoted data from Viet Nam’s Ministry of Planning and Investment as saying that Viet Nam has attracted nearly US$ 3.2 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) so far this year, up 3.1% against last year. It added that 68% of total FDI was in processing and manufacturing and 10% was in real estate.  

The US News and World Report ranked Viet Nam eighth out of 29 economies, up from 23 last year. Meanwhile, some neighboring nations – Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia – stood in thirteenth, fourteenth and eighteenth positions, respectively./.

By Kim Anh