JPMorgan Chase: VN’s CPI to stop surging

CPI figures from August 2011 to September 2012 - Photo: VGP

In its report released on September 24, JPMorgan said that in the first eight months of this year, the monthly average CPI rise was 0.2%.

The report also pointed out that the cause behind September’s sharp CPI rise was rises in prices of health, education, transportation services and food-foodstuff.

According to expert Matt L Hildebrandt, author of the report, inflation tends to rise at the end of the year, fuelled by increases in prices of aforementioned goods and services, except that of healthcare group.

However, in the context of weak economic growth in the world and Viet Nam, JPMorgan Chase said that CPI would not jump at the end of this year as it usually did in the past few years.

But, the report also said that the year-on-year inflation rate of 5% will be difficult to maintain and inflation will continue towards the threshold of 9% in the remaining months of the year.

On this basis, JPMorgan Chase said that the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) can stop cutting interest rates until the end of this year.

Earlier, JPMorgan Chase predicted that SBV would lower interest rates by 100-200 basis points within this year.

The General Statistics Office on September 24 also announced that September’s CPI represented a record monthly rise since June, 2011. It also marked a 6.48% rise year-on -year.

Price hike was seen in the groups of medicines, healthcare, education and transport services, housing, and construction materials./.

By Khanh Phuong